What is valuebet? (Positive EV bet)

Valuebets appear in sports betting when the odds offered by the bookie exceed the actual probability of the given outcome. This makes a punter's bet profitable in the long run.

In other words, if the bettor assumes that the probability of the outcome according to his calculations is significantly higher than the probability given by the bookmaker, then such bets are to be called Valuebets.

Let's take a look at the valuebets through the example of a tennis match between R. Nadal and N. Djokovic.

The bookie set the odds for the win of N. Djokovic at 1.5, and 2.7 - for the win of R. Nadal. Let’s convert these numbers to percentages to understand how likely each player is to win according to the bookmaker:

• the probability of N. Djokovic winning: 100 / 1.5 = 67%
• the probability of R. Nadal winning: 100 / 2.7 = 37%

You analyzed the match on your own, taking into account all the important factors that can affect the outcome of the game. Then you made your calculations of the probability of victory for each player and obtained the following results:

• the probability of N. Djokovic winning: 55%
• the probability of R. Nadal winning: 45%

Now let's compare our results with the ones offered by the bookie.

Your calculation shows that the bookmaker overestimated the probability of N. Djokovic winning by 12%:

• overestimation of N. Djokovic's win: 67% - 55% = 12%

Also, the bookmaker underestimated the probability of R. Nadal winning by 8%:

• underestimation of R. Nadal's win: 37% - 45% = 8%

If your calculations are correct, then you will have a mathematical advantage, and according to this, a bet on R. Nadal's victory will be considered a value bet.

This game ended with the victory of R. Nadal. 

However, even if your bet turned out to be a winning bet, you can't be 100% sure that it was mathematically profitable and valid.

To ensure your bets have an advantage over the bookmaker's line, you need to make over a hundred bets using this approach. The more bets you make, the more accurate your valuebet rate over the bookmaker betting line will be.

It is worth noting that the bookmaker's odds display the most accurate values in relation to the probability of outcomes. Therefore, finding Valuebets on your own is not an easy task for an average bettor. In other words, to find valuebets you need to have more information than the bookmaker has, which is almost impossible.

But chin up! The algorithms of our Valuebets service already include all the necessary parameters that take into account many factors. Each bet offered by the Valuebets service already has a certain Valuebet's percent.

Such bets are guaranteed to bring you profit in the long run.